Good times? They are here now.

1. Our GDP is ~$3 trillion or ~$250 billion per month or ~$10 billion per day (25 day working month).

2. It looks likely that COVID-19 is going to be with us at least for another month. 

3. Given the restrictions already in place, and further strictures which are bound to follow, we should expect at least a 5% impairment of the GDP run rate until April end. In other words, if the expected GDP for the 6 weeks from now to April end was $375 billion on a steady state basis, it will now come in at $356 billion. Assuming that India bounces back instantly and the remaining 11 months of Fiscal 20-21 deliver $250 billion per month, India will wrap up 20-21 with a GDP of $2.99 trillion.

4. Now the Rupee slipped from 69 to the USD in April 19 to 73 to the USD right now, a 5.6% depreciation. Let's assume that it erodes only 5% during Fiscal 20-21. That will leave the Rupee at about 77 to the USD a year hence. 

5. Adjusted for this depreciated Rupee, the GDP slips to $2.84 trillion for 20-21, a hard fall of 16% in USD terms. 

6. Assuming that our Fiscal 24-25 goalpost remains unchanged at $5 trillion, India's GDP will have to grow at >15.2% in constant, or >20% at current terms for these 4 years.

7. The official growth rate right now is ~4%. It needs to quadruple to give the economy a fighting chance of making the goal. 

8. Put differently, India needs to grow her GDP as much in 3 months as it is currently doing in the year. 

9. Capital formation, particularly by the private sector, is at a standstill. Banks had little risk appetite; what little remained, has vanished post Yes Bank. The equity market is unlikely to shake off the Coronavirus before Wall Street. Don't hold your breath for animal spirits there. 

10. What is the government (and apparently, most of my putative friends on Facebook) most interested in right now? Pushing NPR/NRC/CAA through, by fair means or their means. 

An administration which has brought India such shining economic success, is building on it to deliver shining social success.

Buckle up and soak in the lovely view. 

These are the "good times", which you are going to remember, wistfully, in 2025.